🔗 Share this article Moving from Grudging Admiration to Unease: Russia Weighs Up the Ousting of Venezuela's Leader. A unexpected operation against the capital city under cover of darkness, ending with the capture of the country's president. By the next morning, the intervening power announces its plan to rule for an indefinite period. That was the scenario Vladimir Putin imagined his large-scale offensive of Ukraine playing out in early 2022. Instead, it was Donald Trump who executed it in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned by many, whisking away the Kremlin's historic ally Nicolás Maduro, who now faces trial in New York. Public Fury, Private Calculations Officially, Moscow's representatives have expressed fury, denouncing the operation as a flagrant violation of global norms and a dangerous precedent. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a sense of grudging respect – and even envy – at the efficiency of a coup that Russia once imagined, but could not carry out due to critical intelligence failures and stiff Ukrainian opposition. “The mission was executed competently,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel a popular military blog. “In all probability, this is exactly how our 'military campaign' was meant to proceed: swift, dramatic and decisive. It’s difficult to imagine [Valery] Gerasimov expected to be fighting for four years.” Such commentary have fueled a mood of soul-searching among pro-war voices, with some publicly wondering how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly conflict. A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “shame” on Russia's behalf given how brazen the US intervention appeared to be. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own 'special military operation,’” she wrote. A Network Unravels For more than two decades, Venezuela worked to build a network of anti-American allies – from Russia and China to Havana and Tehran – in the hope of helping to shape a alternative bloc capable of standing up to Washington. However, even with Moscow's top diplomat pledging support for the Caracas government as recently as late December, hardly any experts ever believed Moscow would intervene meaningfully. Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, seen other important partners fall from power or weaken sharply – from Bashar al-Assad to an ever-more fragile Iran – laying bare the limits of the Kremlin's reach. “For Russia, the circumstances are profoundly awkward,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a close partner and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into no option but to express outrage. Yet providing any tangible support to a country so far away is simply impossible – for practical and operational reasons.” Focus on the Main Front Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. Putin's priority, analysts say, is Ukraine – and maintaining a productive dialogue with the US administration on that issue greatly exceeds the fate of Caracas. “Putin and Trump are currently focused on a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a broader geopolitical contest with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov added. Tangible Costs and New Threats Still, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration takes power in Caracas, American military specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including advanced Russian-made systems. This arsenal encompasses S-300VM anti-aircraft systems delivered in 2013, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025. Moscow has also provided billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever. A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is crude oil: American control over Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, threatening one of Russia's most important sources of income. “If our American 'partners' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.” A Dark Optimism Yet, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they argue, could deal a final blow to the post-war global system and usher in a more openly power-based world order – one where power, rather than law, determines results. “Team Trump is ruthless and pragmatic in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Russia's former president approvingly. “Ousting Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The principle of might makes right is clearly more powerful than international law.”
A unexpected operation against the capital city under cover of darkness, ending with the capture of the country's president. By the next morning, the intervening power announces its plan to rule for an indefinite period. That was the scenario Vladimir Putin imagined his large-scale offensive of Ukraine playing out in early 2022. Instead, it was Donald Trump who executed it in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned by many, whisking away the Kremlin's historic ally Nicolás Maduro, who now faces trial in New York. Public Fury, Private Calculations Officially, Moscow's representatives have expressed fury, denouncing the operation as a flagrant violation of global norms and a dangerous precedent. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a sense of grudging respect – and even envy – at the efficiency of a coup that Russia once imagined, but could not carry out due to critical intelligence failures and stiff Ukrainian opposition. “The mission was executed competently,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel a popular military blog. “In all probability, this is exactly how our 'military campaign' was meant to proceed: swift, dramatic and decisive. It’s difficult to imagine [Valery] Gerasimov expected to be fighting for four years.” Such commentary have fueled a mood of soul-searching among pro-war voices, with some publicly wondering how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly conflict. A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “shame” on Russia's behalf given how brazen the US intervention appeared to be. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own 'special military operation,’” she wrote. A Network Unravels For more than two decades, Venezuela worked to build a network of anti-American allies – from Russia and China to Havana and Tehran – in the hope of helping to shape a alternative bloc capable of standing up to Washington. However, even with Moscow's top diplomat pledging support for the Caracas government as recently as late December, hardly any experts ever believed Moscow would intervene meaningfully. Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, seen other important partners fall from power or weaken sharply – from Bashar al-Assad to an ever-more fragile Iran – laying bare the limits of the Kremlin's reach. “For Russia, the circumstances are profoundly awkward,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a close partner and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into no option but to express outrage. Yet providing any tangible support to a country so far away is simply impossible – for practical and operational reasons.” Focus on the Main Front Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. Putin's priority, analysts say, is Ukraine – and maintaining a productive dialogue with the US administration on that issue greatly exceeds the fate of Caracas. “Putin and Trump are currently focused on a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a broader geopolitical contest with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov added. Tangible Costs and New Threats Still, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration takes power in Caracas, American military specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including advanced Russian-made systems. This arsenal encompasses S-300VM anti-aircraft systems delivered in 2013, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025. Moscow has also provided billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever. A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is crude oil: American control over Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, threatening one of Russia's most important sources of income. “If our American 'partners' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.” A Dark Optimism Yet, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they argue, could deal a final blow to the post-war global system and usher in a more openly power-based world order – one where power, rather than law, determines results. “Team Trump is ruthless and pragmatic in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Russia's former president approvingly. “Ousting Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The principle of might makes right is clearly more powerful than international law.”