🔗 Share this article

Against the backdrop of the widespread uncertainty surrounding the United States attacks on Venezuela, the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “control” the country and “reclaim the petroleum resources”, there is no doubt – this establishes a truly chilling precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States possesses a dark record of interference, invasion and occupation in that part of the world, but the recent overnight operation marked its initial significant armed assault on the soil of a South American nation. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” Mr Trump declared.

The decision to unilaterally attack another state and abduct its leader – only a few days after he publicly sought an off-ramp – carries even broader implications. This ought to concern everyone.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has remarked that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and dismissed prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other factions of the decapitated regime are even more hardline.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who won power promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is transforming it into a lawless actor.

He is convinced that the US’s might enables it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: witness the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He promises that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this latest episode “will pay for itself”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came without UN resolutions of any kind or the consent of the US Congress; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to obliterate them.

Set aside the message this sends to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will likely encourage more reckless actions.

The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims

Few believe the pretext that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is driven by the promise of energy wealth as well as machismo, the ideology of some in his administration, and the appetite for triumphalism as his support at home declines.

World Leaders' Silence and a Weakened UN

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been shockingly muted. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode highlights the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could potentially force him to focus on domestic issues once more – but escalating insurance prices, financial discontent and distracting files fuel his desire for external drama.

Barely 12 months into his presidential term. World leaders may live to repent if they remain quiet at this juncture, given what – and who – could be next.